The Hoh River is loved by many, particularly fisherpersons - perhaps too many. The Hoh is actually one of the smaller major river systems on the coast, north of the Chehalis. Only the Humptulips River is smaller. Steelhead management on the Hoh is often quite contentious.
The Hoh tribe has pursued their treaty fishing rights with respect to winter steelhead in a fairly determined manner, for cultural, social and economic reasons - reasons and a determination that probably seem reasonable to many, at least non-fisherpersons.
In the midst of a series of significant sport fishing regulation changes that greatly curtailed sport harvest of wild winter steelhead on the Hoh and elsewhere (1999-2004), the Hoh tribe negotiated a 3-year harvest management plan with the WDFW in 2004. While there were some trade-offs, it would allow the Hoh tribe the 2-day a week Spring schedule that they wanted, at the price of exceeding 50% of the wild surplus and lowering the additional escapement that the restrictive sport regulations would have made possible.
Some of us had reservations about the certainty of the claim that the sportfishing harvest reductions would in fact be delivered, in their entirety, to the spawning beds. For those of you who follow these kinds of things, the language you always want to beware of is “"best purposes”". “Best Purposes” is code for “"you did not want these fish bad enough, so now were going to give them to somebody else”."
But enough about this sad piece of contextual history, this is a supposed to be a piece about hope and acknowledgement.
It would be easy enough to be depressed by recent run size trends on the Hoh. But if you bother to dig a little deeper, you will find something pretty amazing. While issues still swirl concerning tribal harvest share and seasons, things are improving on the overall management of the wild winter run steelhead on the Hoh, and the seeds for a potentially better future are being sown.
How So?
Looking at two recent periods, 2000-01 thru 2004-05 vs. 2005-06 thru 2009-10, despite smaller run sizes, the co-managers were able to put more fish on the spawning grounds.
Period Average Post-Season Run Size Average Escapement
2000-04 4,217 2,188
2005-09 3,704 2,696
Change 513 less fish 508 more spawners
So where did those fish come from?
Well, one part of the answer is that we caught less fish. Between the two periods, there are about 1,020 fish per year to account for –- 510 fish less to work with and 510 more delivered to the spawning grounds.
• Total sport impacts (harvest + catch and release mortalities) declined about 270 per year.
• Tribal impacts (harvest +net dropouts) declined by about 750 fish per year.
Certainly sport harvest rule changes played a role. They went from:
'00/01 - '01/02 1 wild fish per day, 2 per year specifically from the Hoh
'02/03 - '03/04 1 wild fish per day, 5 per year statewide
'04/05 1 wild fish per day, 1 wild fish per year statewide
The 1 wild fish per year regulation was in place for the entire second 5-year period.
There were also a couple of emergency closures in the second period that made a difference to both sport and tribal impacts.
'05/06 March Sport Wild Steelhead Release, Closed to both Sport and Tribal on March 31
'07/08 Closed to both Sport and Tribal on April 3
In hind sight, it could be argued that the '05/06 emergency regulation was probably not necessary, as there were more fish than predicted and the escapement turned out to be over 3500, 1100 fish greater than the goal. However, given the extremely low escapements of '02/03 and '04/05, it was a good thing to have the extra escapement to help buffer the low return run sizes those escapements were likely to cause.
[The majority of wild fish on the Hoh return for the first time at total ages of 4 (52%) and 5 years (43% ). Repeat spawners typically run 16 % of the previous year’s escapement. Repeat spawners did in fact return at 15% in '06/07 and did help with the impacts of the 4 year old returns from '02/03 with 165 additional fish (1100 x15%). It also happened that the extra 4-year olds from '05/06 helped to offset a potential shortfall of the 5-year olds for the low escapement (1480) of '04/05.]
The '07/08 early closure was spot on, yielding an escapement of 2,419.
But really, one of the key drivers to this turnaround was improved preseason forecasting. A good forecast does not guarantee successful management of a fishery. Even with a good forecast (reasonably accurate/conservative), fisheries impacts can exceed preseason projections. For example, somewhat higher than normal water levels and lower water clarity conditions can increase the success of tribal net fisheries. Similarly, lower water conditions and clearer than normal conditions can boost sportfishing impacts.
On the other hand, a poor forecast, particularly one that overestimates incoming run size, almost guarantees an unsuccessful outcome. It is hard to manage to the escapement goal when you think you have a lot more fish than you really do.
Looking at the graph, you will see green and red bars. The red bars show an over forecast of run size in the preseason forecast, and the green bars show an under prediction.
Red bars – bad for fish.
Big red bars - really bad for fish.
Green bars- good for fish.
Big green bars – really good for fish, bad for fisherpersons (at least in the short -run) in the sense that they are likely to lead to the curtailment of fisheries opportunities when it might not otherwise be necessary.
There are 4 red bars in the first period, two of which are quite large, and one green bar. The second period has 2 green bars, 3 red bars, and the red bars are smaller than in the first period. The average over forecast (size of the red bars) '00-04 was 862 vs. 452 for ’05-09. While that is far from ideal, it is a considerable improvement.
So we see that there are less and smaller red bars in the second period, and more and larger green bars. We also see that escapements are significantly improved, and that there is a pretty direct relationship between green bars and exceeding escapement goal and red bars and lower escapements.
The abysmal escapements of '02-03, and '04-05 are in the past, and no longer directly affect future run size. These each represented about a 25% reduction in future potential productivity towards the return years they impacted, compared to what would be expected had they made escapement goal. By contrast, the escapement shortfalls in the most recent 5 year period ('08-09 and '09-10), in part the legacy of the prior periods dramatic short falls, represent only a 4% potential reduction in future run size contribution.
Another bit of good news is the preliminary assessment of results from the '10-11 season. Most of this data is final with the exception of some fine tuning of the sport impact numbers. The escapement estimate, which is final, was 3,499. A comparison of the preseason forecast and preliminary post-season estimate of run size was an under forecast of 541, another green bar.
The delay of the wild harvest opening was in place for '10-11 (Feb. 16). However, both sport harvested and sport caught & released wild numbers were down, and it may be more a reflection of water conditions. Time, and results from other rivers, may tell us if this rule is just providing some protection to early stocks, or if it also having the effect of lowering total harvest impacts as opposed to just shifting them into the latter portion of the season.
The co-managers need to keep at it, improving the management of the Hoh River steelhead, and consistently meeting the escapement goal. The forecasting process could use improvements. It is primarily driven by escapement estimates projected forward by age-class-specific recruits per spawner data derived from ongoing analysis of scale samples taken from the tribal net fishery and sport creel surveys. Improvements such as the study and incorporation of the impacts of flood and scour events during the spawning and incubation period, low water events in the summer, or smolt traps would be very helpful in refining the forecasting process. However, with the current financial crisis in our state, things like that may take a goodly while.
The preliminary preseason forecast for '11-12 is for a wild return of 4,170 and 1,872 hatchery fish.
